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Options-implied probabilities are calculated by using the Block-Scholes model or other pricing models that take into account factors like current spot market price, strike price, time to expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Options-based probabilities are positively correlated with implied volatility: The greater the volatility, the higher the odds of bitcoin hitting certain levels.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Less Than 10% Chance of Reaching $100K by Year-End, Options Market Data Shows
